Alex Bolt vs Fabian Marozsan
24 Sept, 06:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 3h 35m
28%
72%
Why 72% for Fabian Marozsan
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)52.5% · +12.1% toward Fabian Marozsan
ATP ranking40.1% · +9.2% toward Fabian Marozsan
Rest and workload7.4% · +1.7% toward Fabian Marozsan
Raw model probability 27%, calibrated to 28% for Alex Bolt. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.3
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
55%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 28%
- Market
- 26%
- Difference
- 1.4%
3.60
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 3.60 / 1.29 · bookmaker margin of 5.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Alex Bolt has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Alex Bolt's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
Alex BoltFabian Marozsan
1540hard Elo1671
1574Overall Elo1724
-34hard vs overall-53
3–2hard record1–3
provisionalrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1565 vs 1713.