Coleman Wong vs Zhizhen Zhang
24 Sept, 11:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 8h 33m
72%
28%
Why 72% for Coleman Wong
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)53.7% · +12.5% toward Coleman Wong
ATP ranking46.3% · +10.7% toward Coleman Wong
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Coleman Wong
Raw model probability 73%, calibrated to 72% for Coleman Wong. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.3
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
55%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 72%
- Market
- 62%
- Difference
- 10.4%
1.53
Our model differs from the market by 10.4% on Coleman Wong.
Betano MX · 1.53 / 2.50 · bookmaker margin of 5.4% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Zhizhen Zhang's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
- No recent-match record for Zhizhen Zhang, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
Coleman WongZhizhen Zhang
1717hard Elo1541
1690Overall Elo1547
+27hard vs overall-6
8–3hard record34–53
ratedrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1702 vs 1542.