Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Lloyd Harris
24 Sept, 08:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 5h 2m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 50%, calibrated to 50% for Aleksandar Kovacevic. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.2
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 50%
- Market
- 39%
- Difference
- 11.3%
2.45
Our model differs from the market by 11.3% on Aleksandar Kovacevic.
Betano MX · 2.45 / 1.57 · bookmaker margin of 4.5% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Aleksandar Kovacevic is the market underdog, and our model rates them 11.3% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 77% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Lloyd Harris has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1631 vs 1705.