Yannick Hanfmann vs Alex Michelsen
9 Nov, 11:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 15h 59m
Why 65% for Alex Michelsen
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 34%, calibrated to 35% for Yannick Hanfmann. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.6
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 35%
- Market
- 27%
- Difference
- 7.3%
3.50
Our model differs from the market by 7.3% on Yannick Hanfmann.
Betano MX · 3.50 / 1.31 · bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Yannick Hanfmann is the market underdog, and our model rates them 7.3% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 64% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Yannick Hanfmann has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1706 vs 1870.