← Back to matches
hardoutdoor· Eupago Porto Open

Reese Brantmeier vs Naiktha Bains

24 Sept, 11:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 8h 35m

53%
GBRNaiktha BainsRunranked
47%

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)100.0% · +2.8% toward Reese Brantmeier
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Reese Brantmeier

Raw model probability 53%, calibrated to 53% for Reese Brantmeier. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Reese Brantmeier has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Reese Brantmeier, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
  • Naiktha Bains is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
  • No ATP ranking found for Naiktha Bains, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
Reese BrantmeierNaiktha Bains
1616hard Elo1617
1614Overall Elo1592
+2hard vs overall+25
4–2hard record3–1
provisionalrating basisunrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1615 vs 1597.