Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka
9 Nov, 20:00 · Group Stage · best of 3 · in 1d 0h
Why 69% for Aryna Sabalenka
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 30%, calibrated to 31% for Karolina Muchova. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.4
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
53%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 69%
- Market
- 65%
- Difference
- 4.1%
1.50
Our model differs from the market by 4.1% on Aryna Sabalenka.
Betano MX · 2.77 / 1.50 · bookmaker margin of 2.8% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1963 vs 2100.