Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nuno Borges
24 Sept, 05:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 2h 2m
Why 68% for Nuno Borges
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 32%, calibrated to 32% for Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.5
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
53%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 32%
- Market
- 21%
- Difference
- 11.8%
4.65
Our model differs from the market by 11.8% on Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
Betano MX · 4.65 / 1.20 · bookmaker margin of 4.8% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the market underdog, and our model rates them 11.8% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 62% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1593 vs 1776.