Hugo Gaston vs Sho Shimabukuro
24 Sept, 05:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 2h 3m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 53%, calibrated to 53% for Hugo Gaston. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 53%
- Market
- 52%
- Difference
- 1.0%
1.83
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 1.83 / 1.98 · bookmaker margin of 5.1% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1605 vs 1569.