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hardindoor· Sweden· BNP Paribas Nordic Open

Quentin Halys vs Lorenzo Sonego

10 Nov · Time TBC · Round 1 · best of 3

Why 69% for Quentin Halys

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)58.2% · +11.4% toward Quentin Halys
ATP ranking26.6% · +5.2% toward Quentin Halys
Rest and workload15.3% · +3.0% toward Quentin Halys

Raw model probability 70%, calibrated to 69% for Quentin Halys. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.4

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

53%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Quentin Halys has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • Lorenzo Sonego has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Quentin HalysLorenzo Sonego
1809hard Elo1717
1865Overall Elo1702
-56hard vs overall+16
9–7hard record7–8
provisionalrating basisprovisional

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1836 vs 1710.