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clayoutdoor· Delta Motors Tolentino Open

Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Samira De Stefano

24 Sept, 15:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 12h 32m

Why 73% for Samira De Stefano

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (clay)93.5% · +25.9% toward Samira De Stefano
Rest and workload6.5% · -1.8% toward Oksana Selekhmeteva

Raw model probability 26%, calibrated to 27% for Oksana Selekhmeteva. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.3

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

55%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Oksana Selekhmeteva has a provisional clay rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • Samira De Stefano has a provisional clay rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Samira De Stefano, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
Oksana SelekhmetevaSamira De Stefano
1426clay Elo1727
1556Overall Elo1717
-130clay vs overall+10
3–8clay record9–3
provisionalrating basisprovisional

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1501 vs 1721.