Max Dahlin vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
9 Nov, 17:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 21h 29m
Max Dahlinunranked
23%
77%
Why 77% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)100.0% · +28.0% toward Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Raw model probability 22%, calibrated to 23% for Max Dahlin. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
57%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 77%
- Market
- 74%
- Difference
- 2.3%
1.28
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 3.70 / 1.28 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Max Dahlin is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- No ATP ranking found for Max Dahlin, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
- No recent-match record for Max Dahlin, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Max DahlinTomas Martin Etcheverry
1500hard Elo1660
1462Overall Elo1692
+38hard vs overall-32
—hard record5–10
unratedrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1462 vs 1676.