Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Jie Cui
24 Sept, 08:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 5h 33m
Why 72% for Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 73%, calibrated to 72% for Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.3
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
55%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 28%
- Market
- 27%
- Difference
- 0.5%
3.50
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 1.31 / 3.50 · bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Jie Cui is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- Jie Cui's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
- No recent-match record for Jie Cui, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1657 vs 1526.