Zizou Bergs vs Holger Rune
10 Nov · Time TBC · Round 1 · best of 3
Why 56% for Zizou Bergs
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 56%, calibrated to 56% for Zizou Bergs. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 56%
- Market
- 43%
- Difference
- 13.4%
2.30
Our model differs from the market by 13.4% on Zizou Bergs.
Betano MX · 2.30 / 1.70 · bookmaker margin of 2.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Zizou Bergs is the market underdog, and our model rates them 13.4% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 78% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Zizou Bergs has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Holger Rune's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1757 vs 1820.