Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton
8 Nov, 14:15 · Final · best of 3 · in progress
Why 71% for Carlos Alcaraz
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 72%, calibrated to 71% for Carlos Alcaraz. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.3
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
54%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 29%
- Market
- 23%
- Difference
- 5.7%
4.25
Our model differs from the market by 5.7% on Ben Shelton.
Betano MX · 1.27 / 4.25 · bookmaker margin of 2.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Ben Shelton is the market underdog, and our model rates them 5.7% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 69% chance of finishing within 5.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 2301 vs 2021.