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hardindoor· Singapore Tennis Open

Leylah Fernandez vs Mirra Andreeva

25 Sept · Time TBC · Quarterfinal · best of 3

RUSMirra AndreevaR#5
79%

Why 79% for Mirra Andreeva

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)52.1% · +15.4% toward Mirra Andreeva
ATP ranking45.9% · +13.5% toward Mirra Andreeva
Rest and workload2.0% · +0.6% toward Mirra Andreeva

Raw model probability 21%, calibrated to 21% for Leylah Fernandez. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

58%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

💡 Different view
Our model
79%
Market
74%

1.28

Difference
4.2%

Our model differs from the market by 4.2% on Mirra Andreeva.

Betano MX · 3.70 / 1.28 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.

What is missing here

Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.

Leylah FernandezMirra Andreeva
1748hard Elo1892
1742Overall Elo2007
+6hard vs overall-114
122–85hard record68–32
ratedrating basisrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1747 vs 1907.