Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens
25 Sept · Time TBC · Quarterfinal · best of 3
Why 55% for Elise Mertens
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 45%, calibrated to 45% for Maja Chwalinska. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 45%
- Market
- 33%
- Difference
- 11.7%
2.87
Our model differs from the market by 11.7% on Maja Chwalinska.
Betano MX · 2.87 / 1.42 · bookmaker margin of 5.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Maja Chwalinska is the market underdog, and our model rates them 11.7% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 73% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Maja Chwalinska has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1732 vs 1758.