Terence Atmane vs Jaime Faria
24 Sept, 05:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 2h 34m
Why 59% for Jaime Faria
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 40%, calibrated to 41% for Terence Atmane. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.8
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
51%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 59%
- Market
- 45%
- Difference
- 14.0%
2.10
Our model differs from the market by 14.0% on Jaime Faria.
Betano MX · 1.75 / 2.10 · bookmaker margin of 4.8% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Jaime Faria is the market underdog, and our model rates them 14.0% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 79% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1734 vs 1812.