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clayoutdoor· Delta Motors Tolentino Open

Barbora Palicova vs Ekaterine Gorgodze

24 Sept, 12:00 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 9h 4m

48%
52%

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (clay)82.5% · -2.8% toward Ekaterine Gorgodze
Rest and workload17.5% · +0.6% toward Barbora Palicova

Raw model probability 48%, calibrated to 48% for Barbora Palicova. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Barbora Palicova has a provisional clay rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Barbora Palicova, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
  • No ATP ranking found for Ekaterine Gorgodze, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
Barbora PalicovaEkaterine Gorgodze
1550clay Elo1553
1528Overall Elo1553
+22clay vs overall0
4–4clay record11–13
provisionalrating basisrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1536 vs 1553.