Lorenzo Sonego vs Inaki Montes-De La Torre
8 Nov, 11:00 · Qualifying Final · best of 3 · in progress
Why 62% for Lorenzo Sonego
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 63%, calibrated to 62% for Lorenzo Sonego. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.7
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
51%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
No odds available for this event.
Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.
What is missing here
- Lorenzo Sonego has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Inaki Montes-De La Torre is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- No ATP ranking found for Inaki Montes-De La Torre, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1683 vs 1582.