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hardoutdoor· USA· BNP Paribas Open

Elina Svitolina vs Aryna Sabalenka

10 Nov · Time TBC · Group Stage · best of 3

Why 70% for Aryna Sabalenka

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)56.3% · +11.8% toward Aryna Sabalenka
ATP ranking43.7% · +9.2% toward Aryna Sabalenka
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Aryna Sabalenka

Raw model probability 29%, calibrated to 30% for Elina Svitolina. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.4

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

54%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.

Elina SvitolinaAryna Sabalenka
1927hard Elo2101
1984Overall Elo2078
-57hard vs overall+23
274–128hard record292–98
ratedrating basisrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1929 vs 2100.