Hubert Hurkacz vs Aleksandr Shevchenko
24 Sept, 08:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 5h 2m
Why 74% for Hubert Hurkacz
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 75%, calibrated to 74% for Hubert Hurkacz. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.2
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
56%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 26%
- Market
- 20%
- Difference
- 6.2%
4.85
Our model differs from the market by 6.2% on Aleksandr Shevchenko.
Betano MX · 1.19 / 4.85 · bookmaker margin of 4.7% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Aleksandr Shevchenko is the market underdog, and our model rates them 6.2% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 67% chance of finishing within 5.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Aleksandr Shevchenko has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1784 vs 1557.