Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreeva
9 Nov, 21:30 · Group Stage · best of 3 · in 1d 1h
Why 55% for Mirra Andreeva
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 44%, calibrated to 45% for Elina Svitolina. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 45%
- Market
- 36%
- Difference
- 8.5%
2.62
Our model differs from the market by 8.5% on Elina Svitolina.
Betano MX · 2.62 / 1.50 · bookmaker margin of 4.8% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Elina Svitolina is the market underdog, and our model rates them 8.5% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 73% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1929 vs 1914.