Alexandra Eala vs Claire Liu
8 Nov, 08:05 · Final · best of 3 · in progress
Why 74% for Alexandra Eala
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 75%, calibrated to 74% for Alexandra Eala. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.3
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
55%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 74%
- Market
- 69%
- Difference
- 4.9%
1.39
Our model differs from the market by 4.9% on Alexandra Eala.
Betano MX · 1.39 / 3.05 · bookmaker margin of 4.7% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1831 vs 1694.