Michael Zheng vs Yunchaokete Bu
24 Sept, 07:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 4h 3m
66%
34%
Why 66% for Michael Zheng
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)89.7% · +14.7% toward Michael Zheng
ATP ranking10.3% · +1.7% toward Michael Zheng
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Michael Zheng
Raw model probability 66%, calibrated to 66% for Michael Zheng. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.6
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 66%
- Market
- 61%
- Difference
- 5.1%
1.57
Our model differs from the market by 5.1% on Michael Zheng.
Betano MX · 1.57 / 2.42 · bookmaker margin of 5.0% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Michael Zheng has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Michael ZhengYunchaokete Bu
1788hard Elo1634
1814Overall Elo1617
-27hard vs overall+16
8–4hard record4–3
provisionalrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1803 vs 1623.