Nao Hibino vs Maria Sakkari
24 Sept, 12:00 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 9h 3m
Why 76% for Maria Sakkari
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 23%, calibrated to 24% for Nao Hibino. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.2
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
56%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 24%
- Market
- 21%
- Difference
- 3.0%
4.45
Our model differs from the market by 3.0% on Nao Hibino.
Betano MX · 4.45 / 1.21 · bookmaker margin of 5.1% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Nao Hibino is the market underdog, and our model rates them 3.0% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 66% chance of finishing within 5.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- No ATP ranking found for Nao Hibino, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1558 vs 1733.