Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Miomir Kecmanovic
24 Sept, 06:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 3h 34m
Why 59% for Miomir Kecmanovic
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 41%, calibrated to 41% for Nikoloz Basilashvili. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.8
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
51%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 41%
- Market
- 34%
- Difference
- 6.8%
2.77
Prices exist, but one player is unrated on this surface, so we are not drawing a comparison.
Betano MX · 2.77 / 1.45 · bookmaker margin of 5.1% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Nikoloz Basilashvili is the market underdog, and our model rates them 6.8% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 70% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1652 vs 1656.