Toby Samuel vs Adrian Mannarino
8 Nov, 12:30 · Qualifying Final · best of 3 · in progress
Why 60% for Adrian Mannarino
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 39%, calibrated to 40% for Toby Samuel. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.8
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
51%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
No odds available for this event.
Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.
What is missing here
- Toby Samuel has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1756 vs 1863.