Jaume Munar vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
8 Nov, 17:35 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in progress
63%
37%
Why 63% for Jaume Munar
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)85.1% · +11.9% toward Jaume Munar
ATP ranking6.3% · +0.9% toward Jaume Munar
Rest and workload8.6% · +1.2% toward Jaume Munar
Raw model probability 64%, calibrated to 63% for Jaume Munar. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.7
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 63%
- Market
- 60%
- Difference
- 3.7%
1.60
Our model differs from the market by 3.7% on Jaume Munar.
Betano MX · 1.60 / 2.37 · bookmaker margin of 4.7% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Jaume Munar has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Jaume MunarThiago Agustin Tirante
1819hard Elo1647
1820Overall Elo1689
-2hard vs overall-42
8–4hard record9–9
provisionalrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1820 vs 1666.