Joanna Garland vs Wang Xinyu
24 Sept, 06:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 3h 34m
37%
Wang Xinyu#40
63%
Why 63% for Wang Xinyu
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)91.5% · +12.9% toward Wang Xinyu
Rest and workload8.5% · +1.2% toward Wang Xinyu
Raw model probability 36%, calibrated to 37% for Joanna Garland. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.7
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 37%
- Market
- 34%
- Difference
- 2.7%
2.82
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 2.82 / 1.44 · bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Joanna Garland has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- No ATP ranking found for Joanna Garland, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
- Wang Xinyu has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Joanna GarlandWang Xinyu
1678hard Elo1705
1659Overall Elo1767
+19hard vs overall-61
8–3hard record4–2
provisionalrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1667 vs 1749.