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hardoutdoor· USA· BNP Paribas Open

Linda Noskova vs Jessica Pegula

10 Nov · Time TBC · Group Stage · best of 3

Why 63% for Jessica Pegula

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)57.1% · +8.0% toward Jessica Pegula
ATP ranking42.9% · +6.0% toward Jessica Pegula
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Jessica Pegula

Raw model probability 36%, calibrated to 37% for Linda Noskova. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.7

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

52%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • No recent-match record for Linda Noskova, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
Linda NoskovaJessica Pegula
1865hard Elo2004
1984Overall Elo2019
-120hard vs overall-15
85–49hard record221–94
ratedrating basisrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1877 vs 2005.