Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff
8 Nov, 21:30 · Group Stage · best of 3 · in 1h 59m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 50%, calibrated to 50% for Jessica Pegula. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.2
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 50%
- Market
- 42%
- Difference
- 8.5%
2.32
Our model differs from the market by 8.5% on Jessica Pegula.
Betano MX · 2.32 / 1.67 · bookmaker margin of 3.0% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Jessica Pegula is the market underdog, and our model rates them 8.5% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 77% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- No recent-match record for Coco Gauff, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 2005 vs 2022.