Taylah Preston vs Jelena Ostapenko
24 Sept, 07:00 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 4h 4m
34%
66%
Why 66% for Jelena Ostapenko
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)48.3% · +8.3% toward Jelena Ostapenko
ATP ranking51.7% · +8.8% toward Jelena Ostapenko
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Jelena Ostapenko
Raw model probability 33%, calibrated to 34% for Taylah Preston. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.5
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 34%
- Market
- 32%
- Difference
- 1.8%
3.00
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 3.00 / 1.40 · bookmaker margin of 4.8% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Taylah Preston has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Taylah PrestonJelena Ostapenko
1632hard Elo1676
1592Overall Elo1750
+40hard vs overall-74
7–10hard record183–152
provisionalrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1613 vs 1679.