Yi Zhou vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
24 Sept, 09:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 6h 34m
Why 77% for Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 22%, calibrated to 23% for Yi Zhou. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
57%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 77%
- Market
- 66%
- Difference
- 11.1%
1.44
Our model differs from the market by 11.1% on Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
Betano MX · 2.80 / 1.44 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Yi Zhou has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Yi Zhou's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
- No recent-match record for Yi Zhou, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1525 vs 1707.