Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworth
9 Nov, 12:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 16h 29m
67%
33%
Why 67% for Cameron Norrie
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)73.7% · +15.0% toward Cameron Norrie
ATP ranking20.4% · +4.2% toward Cameron Norrie
Rest and workload5.9% · -1.2% toward James Duckworth
Raw model probability 68%, calibrated to 67% for Cameron Norrie. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.5
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
53%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 33%
- Market
- 30%
- Difference
- 2.4%
3.15
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 1.37 / 3.15 · bookmaker margin of 4.7% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Cameron Norrie has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- James Duckworth has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Cameron NorrieJames Duckworth
1765hard Elo1527
1757Overall Elo1588
+9hard vs overall-62
9–8hard record6–9
provisionalrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1761 vs 1558.