Ugo Humbert vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
9 Nov, 13:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 17h 59m
Why 57% for Ugo Humbert
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 58%, calibrated to 57% for Ugo Humbert. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.9
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 43%
- Market
- 32%
- Difference
- 10.7%
2.90
Our model differs from the market by 10.7% on Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.
Winpot MX · 1.36 / 2.90 · bookmaker margin of 8.0% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is the market underdog, and our model rates them 10.7% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 71% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Ugo Humbert has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1750 vs 1703.