Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Elias Ymer
8 Nov, 15:40 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in progress
Why 78% for Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 80%, calibrated to 78% for Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
58%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
🔥 Top model pick- Our model
- 78%
- Market
- 70%
- Difference
- 8.4%
1.33
Our model differs from the market by 8.4% on Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
Winpot MX · 1.33 / 3.10 · bookmaker margin of 7.4% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Elias Ymer has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Elias Ymer's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
- No recent-match record for Elias Ymer, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1706 vs 1477.