Taro Daniel vs Dane Sweeny
24 Sept, 05:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 2h 2m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 45%, calibrated to 45% for Taro Daniel. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 55%
- Market
- 43%
- Difference
- 11.9%
2.22
Prices exist, but one player is unrated on this surface, so we are not drawing a comparison.
Betano MX · 1.67 / 2.22 · bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Dane Sweeny is the market underdog, and our model rates them 11.9% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 78% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Taro Daniel is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- Taro Daniel's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
- Dane Sweeny has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1659 vs 1643.