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hardoutdoor· China· Hangzhou Open

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Kyrian Jacquet

25 Sept · Time TBC · Round 2 · best of 3

FRAKyrian JacquetR#107
30%

Why 70% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)40.7% · +8.6% toward Tomas Martin Etcheverry
ATP ranking49.3% · +10.3% toward Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rest and workload10.0% · +2.1% toward Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Raw model probability 71%, calibrated to 70% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

23.4

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

54%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

🔥 Top model pick
Our model
70%
Market
60%

1.57

Difference
9.8%

Our model differs from the market by 9.8% on Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Betano MX · 1.57 / 2.40 · bookmaker margin of 5.4% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.

What is missing here

  • Kyrian Jacquet has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Tomas Martin EtcheverryKyrian Jacquet
1718hard Elo1614
1758Overall Elo1658
-40hard vs overall-44
3–4hard record5–3
ratedrating basisprovisional

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1745 vs 1643.