Alexandre Muller vs Moise Kouame
24 Sept, 06:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 3h 32m
Why 64% for Alexandre Muller
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 64%, calibrated to 64% for Alexandre Muller. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.7
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
52%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 64%
- Market
- 47%
- Difference
- 16.5%
2.02
Prices exist, but one player is unrated on this surface, so we are not drawing a comparison.
Betano MX · 2.02 / 1.80 · bookmaker margin of 5.1% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Alexandre Muller is the market underdog, and our model rates them 16.5% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 80% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
- Alexandre Muller is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- Moise Kouame has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- No ATP ranking found for Moise Kouame, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1667 vs 1551.