Kamil Majchrzak vs Mattia Bellucci
24 Sept, 08:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 5h 4m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 52%, calibrated to 52% for Kamil Majchrzak. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 48%
- Market
- 43%
- Difference
- 4.7%
2.20
Our model differs from the market by 4.7% on Mattia Bellucci.
Betano MX · 1.67 / 2.20 · bookmaker margin of 5.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
Mattia Bellucci is the market underdog, and our model rates them 4.7% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 75% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1699 vs 1681.