Alina Charaeva vs Anna Bondar
24 Sept, 03:00 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 4m
46%
54%
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)28.0% · +2.7% toward Alina Charaeva
ATP ranking59.6% · -5.7% toward Anna Bondar
Rest and workload12.5% · -1.2% toward Anna Bondar
Raw model probability 46%, calibrated to 46% for Alina Charaeva. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 54%
- Market
- 54%
- Difference
- 0.5%
1.78
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 2.05 / 1.78 · bookmaker margin of 5.0% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Alina Charaeva has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Alina CharaevaAnna Bondar
1534hard Elo1498
1627Overall Elo1661
-93hard vs overall-164
4–6hard record27–54
provisionalrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1590 vs 1523.