Miomir Kecmanovic vs Arthur Rinderknech
10 Nov · Time TBC · Round 1 · best of 3
29%
71%
Why 71% for Arthur Rinderknech
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)75.5% · +17.3% toward Arthur Rinderknech
ATP ranking23.6% · +5.4% toward Arthur Rinderknech
Rest and workload0.9% · -0.2% toward Miomir Kecmanovic
Raw model probability 28%, calibrated to 29% for Miomir Kecmanovic. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
23.4
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
54%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 71%
- Market
- 66%
- Difference
- 5.2%
1.44
Our model differs from the market by 5.2% on Arthur Rinderknech.
Betano MX · 2.80 / 1.44 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Miomir Kecmanovic has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- Arthur Rinderknech has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Miomir KecmanovicArthur Rinderknech
1530hard Elo1773
1559Overall Elo1780
-29hard vs overall-7
4–9hard record6–5
provisionalrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1546 vs 1777.