Linda Noskova vs Marta Kostyuk
8 Nov, 20:00 · Group Stage · best of 3 · in 30m
56%
44%
Why 56% for Linda Noskova
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)67.8% · +4.2% toward Linda Noskova
ATP ranking32.2% · +2.0% toward Linda Noskova
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Linda Noskova
Raw model probability 56%, calibrated to 56% for Linda Noskova. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.0
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 44%
- Market
- 42%
- Difference
- 1.8%
2.27
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 1.65 / 2.27 · bookmaker margin of 4.7% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- No recent-match record for Linda Noskova, so no rest or workload adjustment was applied on his side.
Linda NoskovaMarta Kostyuk
1865hard Elo1812
1984Overall Elo1945
-120hard vs overall-133
85–49hard record108–79
ratedrating basisrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1877 vs 1822.