Maya Joint vs Lanlana Tararudee
25 Sept · Time TBC · Quarterfinal · best of 3
47%
53%
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)72.9% · -2.6% toward Lanlana Tararudee
ATP ranking27.1% · -1.0% toward Lanlana Tararudee
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Maya Joint
Raw model probability 46%, calibrated to 47% for Maya Joint. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.1
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 47%
- Market
- 44%
- Difference
- 2.4%
2.15
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 2.15 / 1.70 · bookmaker margin of 5.3% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Lanlana Tararudee has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Maya JointLanlana Tararudee
1641hard Elo1624
1654Overall Elo1705
-13hard vs overall-81
27–29hard record8–8
ratedrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1644 vs 1663.