Alexandra Eala vs Tatiana Prozorova
24 Sept, 10:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 7h 34m
85%
15%
Why 85% for Alexandra Eala
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)97.6% · +37.0% toward Alexandra Eala
Rest and workload2.4% · -0.9% toward Tatiana Prozorova
Raw model probability 86%, calibrated to 85% for Alexandra Eala. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
22.8
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
63%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
💡 Different view- Our model
- 85%
- Market
- 81%
- Difference
- 4.6%
1.18
Our model differs from the market by 4.6% on Alexandra Eala.
Betano MX · 1.18 / 4.90 · bookmaker margin of 5.2% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Tatiana Prozorova has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
- No ATP ranking found for Tatiana Prozorova, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
Alexandra EalaTatiana Prozorova
1783hard Elo1383
1855Overall Elo1518
-72hard vs overall-136
24–28hard record1–7
ratedrating basisprovisional
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1799 vs 1471.