← Back to matches
hardoutdoor· Eupago Porto Open

Gabriela Andrea Knutson vs Maria Timofeeva

25 Sept · Time TBC · Quarterfinal · best of 3

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)65.7% · +4.6% toward Gabriela Andrea Knutson
Rest and workload34.3% · -2.4% toward Maria Timofeeva

Raw model probability 52%, calibrated to 52% for Gabriela Andrea Knutson. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Gabriela Andrea Knutson has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Gabriela Andrea Knutson, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
  • Maria Timofeeva has a provisional hard rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Gabriela Andrea KnutsonMaria Timofeeva
1723hard Elo1610
1720Overall Elo1726
+3hard vs overall-116
9–4hard record8–7
provisionalrating basisprovisional

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1721 vs 1668.