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hardoutdoor· USA· BNP Paribas Open

Karolina Muchova vs Elina Svitolina

10 Nov · Time TBC · Group Stage · best of 3

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (hard)61.3% · +2.2% toward Karolina Muchova
ATP ranking38.7% · -1.4% toward Elina Svitolina
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Karolina Muchova

Raw model probability 51%, calibrated to 51% for Karolina Muchova. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.2

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.

Karolina MuchovaElina Svitolina
1961hard Elo1927
1993Overall Elo1984
-32hard vs overall-57
132–60hard record274–128
ratedrating basisrated

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1963 vs 1929.