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clayoutdoor· Delta Motors Tolentino Open

Nuria Brancaccio vs Veronika Erjavec

24 Sept, 17:30 · Round 2 · best of 3 · in 14h 33m

Why this is close

Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.

Surface Elo (clay)100.0% · -2.2% toward Veronika Erjavec
Rest and workload0.0% · +0.0% toward Nuria Brancaccio

Raw model probability 48%, calibrated to 48% for Nuria Brancaccio. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.

Projected total games

24.1

leans over for a best of 3

Straight sets

50%

chance the match ends without a deciding set

Market comparison

No odds available for this event.

Odds coverage is per tournament, and our provider currently carries only the larger events. Without a price there is nothing to compare the model against, so we show the prediction on its own.

What is missing here

  • Nuria Brancaccio has a provisional clay rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
  • No ATP ranking found for Nuria Brancaccio, so the ranking input is dropped and the prediction rests on Elo alone.
  • Veronika Erjavec has a provisional clay rating (5–19 matches), so it is pulled part-way toward his overall rating rather than used at face value.
Nuria BrancaccioVeronika Erjavec
1399clay Elo1524
1484Overall Elo1452
-85clay vs overall+72
5–13clay record4–5
provisionalrating basisprovisional

The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1438 vs 1479.