Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth
24 Sept, 05:00 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 2h 2m
Why this is close
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Raw model probability 51%, calibrated to 51% for Lorenzo Sonego. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
24.2
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
50%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
⚡ Standout stats- Our model
- 49%
- Market
- 43%
- Difference
- 6.2%
2.22
Our model differs from the market by 6.2% on James Duckworth.
Betano MX · 1.67 / 2.22 · bookmaker margin of 4.9% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
Underdog keeps it close
James Duckworth is the market underdog, and our model rates them 6.2% higher than the de-vigged price. On top of that, the margin model gives them a 76% chance of finishing within 4.5 games (or winning outright).
Margin model measured on 2,080 settled matches. We carry no handicap prices yet, so this is a statistical read on how close the match should be — not a priced edge.
What is missing here
Both players are rated on this surface with a current ATP ranking and recent-match data. Nothing is missing for this match.
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1671 vs 1622.