Roman Safiullin vs Fajing Sun
24 Sept, 09:30 · Round 1 · best of 3 · in 6h 34m
82%
18%
Why 82% for Roman Safiullin
Each bar is that input's share of the explanatory signal.
Surface Elo (hard)72.7% · +23.7% toward Roman Safiullin
ATP ranking22.1% · +7.2% toward Roman Safiullin
Rest and workload5.2% · +1.7% toward Roman Safiullin
Raw model probability 83%, calibrated to 82% for Roman Safiullin. Calibration is fitted on completed matches and pulls confident predictions back toward the centre.
Projected total games
22.9
leans over for a best of 3
Straight sets
60%
chance the match ends without a deciding set
Market comparison
- Our model
- 82%
- Market
- 79%
- Difference
- 2.7%
1.21
Our model and the market broadly agree on this match.
Betano MX · 1.21 / 4.55 · bookmaker margin of 4.6% removed so the two sides sum to 100%. Predictions only — not a profit claim.
What is missing here
- Fajing Sun is unrated on hard: fewer than 5 matches in our history, so his rating here falls back to his overall level. This also blocks any market comparison for this match.
- Fajing Sun's ATP ranking could not be confirmed against this week's list, so it is used with less confidence.
Roman SafiullinFajing Sun
1662hard Elo1339
1707Overall Elo1332
-44hard vs overall+7
0–1hard record1–3
ratedrating basisunrated
The model uses an effective rating that pulls a thin surface sample back toward the overall rating: 1704 vs 1334.